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Vasco da Gama
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Mirassol
Prediction published on Jul 24, 2026 1:07 PM by Dario in Brazil - Serie A | Modified on Jul 24, 2026 1:07 PM
Vasco da Gama host Mirassol in a crucial Serie A fixture between two teams fighting to remain in the top flight. Vasco enter the match in 17th place, immediately above 18th-placed Mirassol, so the result could have significant consequences for both sides. The clubs experienced eventful breaks during the World Cup, with Vasco changing coaches and Mirassol reshaping their squad following the departure of eight players. Both have since shown signs of progress, but their season statistics underline why they remain in a difficult position. Vasco have recorded five wins, five draws and nine defeats in Serie A, while Mirassol have five wins, four draws and nine losses. With the teams separated by only one place and each needing points, this Vasco da Gama vs Mirassol preview points toward a competitive contest in which neither side can afford to settle for another setback.
Vasco da Gama approach this home game after a 2-2 draw with Independiente Medellín on July 22, 2026. Securing a draw in Colombia was not presented as a poor result, although it also means the team have failed to win either of their two matches since returning to action. Across their last five games, Vasco have managed one victory and one draw while suffering three defeats. They averaged 1.0 goal scored and 1.4 conceded per match during that sequence. Their wider ten-game record consists of three wins, two draws and five losses, illustrating the inconsistency that led the club to make a coaching change during the break.
Pedro Emanuel replaced Renato Portaluppi shortly before the pre-season period and now has the task of establishing his ideas while collecting the points required to move Vasco away from danger. The squad is not described as one of the strongest in the country, but the break offered the new coach valuable preparation time. Mateus Carvalho is the only stated absentee, allowing Pedro Emanuel to retain some continuity from the team used in recent matches while gradually giving the side his own identity.
The season-long figures reveal the scale of the challenge. Vasco are averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per Serie A match, meaning their defensive record has regularly placed pressure on the attack. Their first-half performances are another important concern: they have been behind at half-time in nine of their last 15 league matches and in six of their previous ten Serie A home games. However, another supplied statistic says they have also led at the interval in six of their last ten home fixtures. That contrast suggests Vasco’s matches can develop quickly, with opening periods frequently proving decisive. Playing at home may provide an opportunity to respond, but greater defensive control will be essential.
Mirassol returned from the break with an encouraging 2-1 victory over Grêmio on July 17, 2026. That result continued a comparatively positive run: across their last five matches, they have collected three wins and two defeats, scoring an average of 1.0 goal and conceding only 0.8 per game. Their record over the last ten outings is also stronger than Vasco’s, featuring six victories, one draw and three losses. Although this level has not matched the form attributed to Mirassol in the previous year, it shows that the team remain capable of competing and improving their position.
The break brought a major overhaul, with eight players leaving the squad. Despite those changes, Rafael Guanaes has remained in charge and guided the team through the period. The coach can rely on names including Walter, Reinaldo, Igor Formiga, José Aldo, Denílson, Edson and Alesson, while Negueba is the only significant stated absence. Stability in the coaching position may help Mirassol manage the extensive squad changes as they attempt to build on their victory over Grêmio.
Mirassol’s Serie A record stands at five wins, four draws and nine defeats, with averages of 1.1 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Their recent defensive average is better than their season figure, but their away record contains a clear warning: they have conceded at least once in each of their last 13 matches on the road. That sequence means the visitors may need to score to take anything from this fixture. Their improved overall form provides encouragement, yet maintaining defensive concentration away from home remains one of the central challenges facing the 18th-placed side.
The league positions and season records indicate that this is a direct battle involving two teams under considerable pressure. Vasco da Gama have home advantage and need a response after returning without a win from their first two matches, while Mirassol arrive with greater recent momentum after beating Grêmio and winning three of their last five games. The hosts have scored 1.2 goals per league match but conceded 1.6, whereas the visitors average 1.1 scored and 1.4 allowed. Those figures show that both attacks have remained productive enough to influence games, but neither season-long defensive record offers complete security.
The opening stages could be particularly important. Vasco’s repeated half-time deficits demonstrate the danger of starting slowly, although their record of leading at the break in six of their last ten home matches also highlights their ability to take early control. Mirassol, meanwhile, must address an away sequence of 13 consecutive matches with at least one goal conceded. If Vasco exploit that vulnerability, the visitors may be forced to take greater risks in search of a response.
Recent head-to-head information favors Mirassol: the supplied summary gives Vasco no wins, no draws and three defeats, with Vasco averaging 1.0 goal scored and 2.3 conceded in those meetings. The most recent encounter ended 2-1 on January 29, 2026. Nevertheless, the current contest is shaped by fresh circumstances, including Vasco’s coaching change, Mirassol’s squad overhaul and the urgent need for points at the bottom end of the standings. Vasco’s home setting must be balanced against Mirassol’s stronger recent results, creating the conditions for a closely fought Serie A match in which defensive discipline and first-half efficiency may determine the outcome.
This section provides average statistics and percentages on the main markets for the last 10 matches of both teams
Vasco da Gama
Mirassol
Under
Over
Under
Over
0.5
3
7
1
9
1.5
5
5
2
8
2.5
6
4
7
3
3.5
7
3
8
2
4.5
8
2
9
1