Venezia and Fiorentina meet at Stadio Pierluigi Penzo on Friday, September 11, 2026, with kick-off scheduled for 18:45 local time. This Serie A fixture brings together two teams still searching for their first points of the season after losing each of their opening three league matches. Venezia are 18th, while Fiorentina sit 20th following particularly difficult starts. The hosts have conceded seven goals across their three league games, and the visitors have allowed nine, creating the conditions for an important early-season contest in which both sides need a positive response. The recent scoring data also points towards an eventful match: Venezia's last 13 fixtures have produced more than 1.5 total goals, while the Over 2.5 goals probability for this meeting stands at 66%.

Venezia Recent Form and Key Statistics

Venezia enter the fourth round of Serie A with a record of three defeats from three matches. They began with a 2-0 home loss against Lecce, suffered another 2-0 defeat against Milan and were then beaten 3-2 away to Frosinone on September 6. That latest result means Venezia have lost their opening three Serie A games for the third time in their history. On both previous occasions, they also went on to lose the fourth match.

Their league numbers underline problems at both ends of the pitch. Venezia are averaging 0.7 goals scored and 2.3 conceded per Serie A game. Across their last five matches in all competitions, their record is one victory and four defeats, with averages of 1.2 goals for and 2.2 against. Their only official win of the season came at home in the Coppa Italia.

Home form was a major strength during the previous campaign, when Venezia recorded 17 victories in 19 home league fixtures in Serie B. Their current home sequence also contains several notable trends. They have not drawn any of their last 19 matches at their own ground, and each of their last 12 home games has featured at least two total goals. Venezia have also been ahead at half-time in 12 of those 19 home fixtures.

• Serie A record: no wins, no draws and three defeats.
• Last five matches: one win and four losses.
• Scoring trend: over 1.5 total goals in their last 13 matches.
• Second-half trend: at least one goal after the interval in each of their last 13 games.

Fiorentina Recent Form and Key Statistics

Fiorentina have also started the league season with three consecutive defeats. A 4-0 loss against Roma was followed by a 3-0 defeat away to Frosinone. Their most recent outing, played on September 5, ended in a 2-1 home loss to Torino. Fiorentina are therefore still without a point and have scored only once while conceding nine times.

Those results led to the departure of Fabio Grosso and the return of Paolo Vanoli, who had guided Fiorentina to safety in the previous season. Vanoli recorded five away league victories, two draws and three defeats with the team during 2026. Fiorentina have never lost their first four games of a Serie A campaign, so this trip offers an immediate opportunity to prevent that unwanted sequence from occurring.

The visitors' season averages stand at 0.3 goals scored and 3.0 conceded per league match. Over their last five fixtures, they have collected one victory, one draw and three defeats, averaging 1.2 goals for and 2.2 against. Second-half action has been a consistent feature of their away games: at least one goal after half-time has been recorded in their last 18 away matches and in each of their last 14 Serie A trips.

First halves have followed a different pattern. At least one team has failed to score before the break in Fiorentina's last 27 Serie A matches and in 35 of their last 37 fixtures overall. That suggests the match could develop gradually even though the broader full-time statistics favor several goals.

Venezia vs Fiorentina Probable Lineups and Team News

Giovanni Stroppa is expected to retain Venezia's 3-5-2 approach, with Yeboah and Adams paired in attack. Matias Moreno is expected to join Halhal and Schingtienne in defense, while Hainaut and Haps are set to operate on the flanks. Busio, Basic and Kike Perez are the projected midfield options. Bella-Kotchap, Sverko, Franjic and Adorante are unavailable.

Fiorentina are expected to make limited changes during the initial transition following Vanoli's return. Njie and Mastantuono are candidates to support Pellegrino in attack. Fagioli is set to return alongside Ndour and Atta in midfield. Joao Mario and Valdepenas are expected to take the right and left defensive roles respectively, with Dragusin and Viery continuing centrally. Parisi is the listed absentee for the visitors.

Venezia vs Fiorentina Match Analysis

The pressure on both teams should make this a significant Serie A match. Venezia have home advantage and showed greater attacking ambition when scoring twice in their latest defeat to Frosinone. However, they have conceded at least twice in every league appearance this season. Fiorentina's defensive record is even more concerning, with three goals conceded per game on average, although the visitors did finally score their first league goal against Torino.

The match probabilities give Venezia a 55% chance of victory, compared with 22% for the draw and 23% for Fiorentina. The hosts also hold the stronger recent head-to-head summary, with three wins, one draw and one defeat across the listed meetings. The latest encounter finished 2-1 on May 12, 2025.

Goals remain the central theme of the statistical analysis. The Both Teams To Score probability is 60%, while Over 2.5 goals is rated at 66%. Venezia's long run of matches with at least two total goals, combined with the defensive averages of both sides, supports the possibility of another open contest. Although Fiorentina's first-half trends frequently leave one team scoreless, both clubs have repeatedly featured in away or overall matches containing a second-half goal. With each side chasing its first points, the game may become increasingly stretched after the interval.

Venezia vs Fiorentina prediction from BetMines: Over 2.5 goals with 66% probability.