At the Stadio Pier Luigi Penzo, Eusebio Di Francesco's Venezia hosts Raffaele Palladino's Fiorentina in the first Monday night fixture of Matchday 36 in Serie A. This match is crucial for both teams as they chase vital points to achieve their respective seasonal goals: top-flight survival for Venezia and qualification for European competitions for Fiorentina. The home side, coming off a bitter draw against Torino, desperately needs a win that—should Lecce lose or draw their head-to-head match against Hellas Verona—could lift them out of the bottom three. Venezia currently sits third from bottom with 26 points, just one behind Lecce and one ahead of Empoli, who face Parma in another direct relegation clash. Given the high-stakes fixtures across the league, Matchday 36 could prove decisive in the relegation battle. One advantage for Di Francesco's team is that they’ll take the field knowing the results of their direct rivals. Fiorentina, on the other hand, travel to Venice after a league loss to Roma and a disappointing exit from the UEFA Europa Conference League semifinals. Still, they remain in contention for a European spot via the league, needing to win their final three matches against Venezia, Bologna, and Udinese, while hoping for slip-ups from the teams above. Sitting four points off sixth place, it’s the only way Palladino’s men can turn around their season and put the Conference League heartbreak behind them.

Venezia Recent Form and Key Stats

In their latest Serie A match, Venezia drew 1-1 away to Torino—a missed opportunity after taking the lead in the first half through Kiko Perez, only to be pegged back by a late Vlasic penalty. Over their last five matches, Venezia have recorded one win, three draws, and one loss, averaging one goal scored and 1.2 conceded per game.

Their league position remains precarious: 26 points from 35 matches, with a record of 4 wins, 14 draws, and 17 defeats. At home, they've collected 17 points, scoring 0.76 goals per game and conceding 1.06. In their last three matches at the Penzo, they lost 0-1 to Bologna, beat Monza 1-0 (Fila scoring their only home goal in six matches), and fell 0-2 to AC Milan.

Fiorentina Recent Form and Key Stats

It's a rough patch for Fiorentina, who arrive at this match after a grueling Conference League semi-final tie with Real Betis (a loss in Spain and a draw in Tuscany after extra time), and a 1-0 Serie A loss to Roma. A goal from Shomurodov sealed the match, with the Viola frustrated by an outstanding performance from goalkeeper Mile Svilar.

On the road, Palladino's squad has been inconsistent: 22 of their 59 total points have come away from home, with averages of 1.41 goals scored and 1.18 conceded. Across all competitions, they’ve lost six of their last nine away fixtures, with a 2-2 draw at AC Milan and wins at Celje (Conference League) and Cagliari standing out. Encouragingly, Fiorentina have scored in nearly every away game in 2025, failing to do so on just two occasions.

Venezia vs Fiorentina Prediction and Tactical Overview

Venezia’s offensive struggles have been glaring, particularly since the winter transfer of striker Pohjanpalo to Palermo in Serie B. Their home goal average is under one per game, and they’ve scored just once in their last six Serie A matches at the Penzo. The urgent need to win could backfire for Di Francesco's side, as seen in the narrow late victory over Monza, the league's weakest defense.

Fiorentina, by contrast, have shown consistent scoring form away from home in 2025, even managing comebacks such as the one at Cagliari on April 23. The Viola, on paper, are obviously favourites to return from Venice with the three points in their pockets, but Moise Kean's absence has to be reckoned with. The Italian striker, Serie A's vice top scorer, was injured against Real Betis and is not on the list of players called up for the trip to Venice.

Given this premise, the Venezia vs Fiorentina prediction of the BetMines algorithm predicts that the guests will come out undefeated from the Penzo, obtaining a draw or a victory.

• The Venezia vs Fiorentina prediction of the BetMines algorithm predicts the sign 1 at 23%.
  
  
• The Venezia vs Fiorentina prediction of the BetMines algorithm predicts Double Chance X2 at 77%.

Venezia vs Fiorentina Predicted Lineups

VENEZIA (3-5-2): Radu; Candé, Idzes, Schingtienne; Zerbin, Perez, Nicolussi Caviglia, Busio, Haps; Yeboah, Gytkjaer. Coach: Di Francesco

FIORENTINA (3-5-2): De Gea; Pongracic, Marì, Ranieri; Dodo, Mandragora, Fagioli, Ndour, Gosens; Beltran, Gudmundsson. Coach: Palladino