The 22nd matchday of Serie A features a critical showdown at the Penzo Stadium on Monday between Venezia and Hellas Verona. This Venetian derby is a classic relegation battle as both teams occupy the bottom spots on the table —Venezia in 19th and Hellas Verona in 18th— separated by just 4 points. For both teams, securing three points will be vital in bolstering their chances of survival at the end of the season. Venezia, coming off a solid 1-1 draw away against Parma, is seeking its first victory since December 22, when they defeated Cagliari 2-1. Home form could prove to be a crucial factor, as 11 of Venezia’s 15 points this season have been earned at the Penzo Stadium. On the other side, Hellas Verona, with just one point from their last three matches, desperately needs a positive result to climb out of the relegation zone and widen the gap over Venezia. Adding to the intrigue, Venezia’s star player Joel Pohjanpalo, who has scored six goals this season, is reportedly being targeted by Palermo in the transfer market. Fans have expressed strong disapproval of a potential departure, making this match even more tense and significant for the home side.

Venezia's shape and key statistics

Venezia’s 1-1 draw against Parma highlighted their ongoing struggles in front of goal, with their only score coming from a Pohjanpalo penalty. This continues a concerning trend for Di Francesco’s squad, which boasts the third-worst attack in Serie A with just 19 goals scored, 11 of which were netted at home.

However, Venezia’s home form offers hope. All three of their victories this season have come at the Penzo Stadium, showcasing their ability to perform under the support of their fans.

Hellas Verona's shape and key statistics

In their most recent outing, Hellas Verona was soundly beaten 3-0 by Lazio, exposing the defensive vulnerabilities that have plagued them all season. Hellas Verona currently holds the worst defensive record in Serie A, with 47 goals conceded.

Interestingly, Hellas Verona’s away form has been surprisingly competitive. Two of their last three wins have come away, against Parma and Bologna, and their 9 points away from home are nearly on par with their 10 points at the Bentegodi.

Match Prediction and Tactical Overview

Given the high stakes, this promises to be an intense and hard-fought battle. Venezia will likely adopt a cautious approach, aiming to leverage their defensive solidity at home—they’ve conceded just 13 goals at the Penzo this season. Hellas Verona, despite their decent away form, struggles defensively, having conceded 22 goals away.

With the home crowd behind them and an urgent need for points, Venezia has a good chance of securing a crucial victory. According to BetMines’ algorithm, the prediction for this match leans toward a home win:

• The prediction of the BetMines algorithm for the Venezia – Hellas Verona match predicts the 1 sign at 48%
• The prediction of the BetMines algorithm for the Venezia – Hellas Verona match predicts the X sign at 26%
• The prediction of the BetMines algorithm for the Venezia – Hellas Verona match predicts the 2 sign at 26%

Venezia – Hellas Verona Predicted Lineups

Venezia (3-5-2): Stankovic; Sverko, Idzes, Haps; Zampano, Doumbia, Nicolussi Caviglia, Busio, Ellertsson; Oristanio, Pohjanpalo. Coach: Di Francesco.

Hellas Verona (3-4-1-2): Montipò; Ghilardi, Coppola, Magnani; Tchatchoua, Belahyane, Serdar, Lazovic; Suslov; Sarr, Tengstedt. Coach: Zanetti.