Vitória Guimarães welcome Casa Pia to Estádio D. Afonso Henriques on Sunday, September 6, with kick-off scheduled for 17:00 local time. Both teams have endured difficult starts to the new Liga Portugal campaign, but the visitors arrive under particularly intense pressure after losing each of their opening four league matches without scoring. Vitória Guimarães have also suffered three defeats, although their performances have occasionally offered more encouragement than the results suggest. With home advantage and a stronger statistical outlook, the hosts enter this fixture as favorites to secure three valuable points.

Vitória Guimarães Recent Form and Key Statistics

Vitória Guimarães are 12th in Liga Portugal after recording one victory and three defeats. They have averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per league game, showing that greater efficiency in front of goal is required if they are to turn competitive displays into better results.

Their latest outing ended in a 1-0 loss against Sporting Braga on August 31. Vitória Guimarães remained in contention for much of that match, but a defensive lapse ultimately proved decisive. That defeat followed an encouraging 1-0 victory over Nacional, a game in which the team created enough opportunities to have won by a wider margin. Their other league losses came against Sporting, by a 3-2 scoreline, and Arouca, who won 1-0 at this same venue.

Across their last five matches, the home side have collected two wins and three defeats, averaging 1.0 goal both scored and conceded. Their attacking approach has helped them create chances, but the finishing has not always matched the quality of their build-up play. Alioune Ndoye, Samu Silva and Gustavo Silva currently share the lead among the team’s scorers with one goal apiece.

Several players have provided continuity through the opening weeks. Goalkeeper Oliwier Zych and defenders João Mendes, Óscar Rivas and Thiago Balieiro have completed every available minute. Gonçalo Nogueira and Samu Silva have featured regularly in midfield, while Ndoye and Gustavo Silva have also received consistent playing time. Victor Andersson made his first appearance with 14 minutes against Sporting Braga. Goalkeeper José Ribeiro is the only stated absence for this match.

• Vitória Guimarães have won one of their first four Liga Portugal matches.
• They have not drawn a league game this season.
• Their latest result was a 1-0 defeat against Sporting Braga.
• Fewer than 7.5 corners were taken in each of their last four league matches.

Casa Pia Recent Form and Key Statistics

Casa Pia begin the weekend in 18th place after four consecutive league defeats. Their most concerning figure is an average of 0.0 goals scored, with the visitors yet to find the net in Liga Portugal this season. At the other end, they have conceded an average of 2.8 goals per match.

The team’s last five fixtures have all ended in defeat, with averages of 0.4 goals scored and 3.4 conceded. The most damaging result was the 7-0 loss against Benfica. Casa Pia then suffered a 2-0 defeat away to Gil Vicente before losing 1-0 against Moreirense on August 30. There was at least a more positive response after half-time against Moreirense, when Casa Pia pushed for an equalizer and came closer to breaking their scoring drought.

The defensive unit featuring André Geraldes, David Sousa and João Goulart has not yet helped goalkeeper André Gomes record a clean sheet in the league. In midfield, Lawrence Ofori has been one of the more persistent performers, while Sebastian Pérez came off the bench against Moreirense after starting the first three rounds. Further forward, Rochinha and Henrique Araújo are among the options expected to provide a greater attacking threat.

Casa Pia have no stated injured players, although there is uncertainty surrounding Jérémy Livolant because of an internal disciplinary situation. Regardless of the available personnel, the visitors urgently need improvement in both penalty areas. They have trailed at half-time in each of their last three Liga Portugal matches, while at least one team failed to score before the interval in 28 of their last 30 fixtures.

• Casa Pia have lost their opening four league matches.
• They are yet to score in Liga Portugal this season.
• They have conceded an average of 2.8 goals per league game.
• They have been behind at half-time in their last three league fixtures.

Vitória Guimarães vs Casa Pia Match Analysis

The main contrast lies in the quality of the two teams’ performances despite their poor results. Vitória Guimarães have shown an ability to create promising situations and compete for extended periods, whereas Casa Pia have taken no points and scored no goals. The hosts should therefore look to control possession, apply pressure from the opening stages and spend significant periods in the opposition half.

Casa Pia are likely to prioritize defensive organization and seek opportunities on the counterattack. A cautious approach would be understandable given their difficult start and the number of goals already conceded. However, remaining compact will not be enough on its own: the visitors must also find a way to threaten a Vitória Guimarães defense that has conceded 1.3 goals per league match.

The recent head-to-head record offers Casa Pia some encouragement. The last meeting ended in a 1-0 away victory on May 11, 2026, while Vitória Guimarães have registered one win, two draws and two losses across the summarized series. In those games, Vitória averaged only 0.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. That history suggests the hosts cannot assume that territorial control will automatically produce a comfortable result.

Nevertheless, the current numbers point toward the home team. Vitória Guimarães have a 53% win probability, compared with 25% for the draw and 22% for Casa Pia. Both Teams To Score is almost evenly divided, with No narrowly favored at 51%, while the Over and Under 2.5-goal probabilities are level at 50%. Vitória’s home advantage, Casa Pia’s scoreless league start and the visitors’ run of five consecutive defeats make a home victory the most coherent conclusion.

Vitória Guimarães vs Casa Pia prediction from BetMines: Vitória Guimarães win (1) with 53% probability.