The 24th round of the Brazilian Serie A features the Ba-Vi derby between Vitória and Bahia on Sunday, August 23, 2026. The match is scheduled for 19:00 local time at Estádio Manoel Barradas in Salvador. The hosts are 12th in the competition, while the visitors occupy sixth place. Both sides have experienced inconsistent periods, although Vitória ended a run of three league defeats by beating Botafogo and Bahia remain unbeaten across their last five matches after drawing each of them. Vitória also have a notable home record in this fixture, having avoided a home Serie A defeat against Bahia since 1989.

Vitória Recent Form and Key Statistics

Vitória enter the derby after a 1-0 victory over Botafogo on August 16. That result brought relief following consecutive Serie A defeats against Remo, Palmeiras and Flamengo. Across their latest five matches, the hosts have registered two wins and three losses, scoring an average of 1.0 goal and conceding 1.6 per game.

Their season record in Serie A stands at eight wins, five draws and ten defeats from 23 fixtures. Vitória have averaged 1.0 goal scored and 1.4 conceded per match, collecting 29 points. Their recent results have been mixed, but two victories across the last three games in all competitions have provided renewed momentum. In addition to overcoming Botafogo, the team recorded a 4-0 home win against Athletico-PR to qualify for the Copa do Brasil quarter-finals. The club had previously eliminated Flamengo and won the Copa do Nordeste against Fortaleza.

The home side's first-half statistics provide another important angle. Vitória have avoided being behind at half-time in 18 of their last 20 home matches and have led at the interval in eight of the previous 11 at home. Within Serie A, they have been ahead at half-time in six of their last ten home fixtures. However, they have also trailed at the break in six of their last ten league matches overall, highlighting a clear difference between their home and general first-half records. In each of Vitória's last 20 home games, at least one of the teams failed to score during the second half.

Vitória have several confirmed absentees: Anderson Pato, Caique Gonçalves, Camutanga, Dudu, Edu, Nathan Mendes, Riccieli and Rúben Ramos Ismael. Gabriel Baralhas is also doubtful because of physical discomfort. In attack, Renê is the team's leading Serie A scorer and recently found the net twice in the Copa do Brasil victory over Athletico-PR.

Bahia Recent Form and Key Statistics

Bahia arrive after a 3-3 draw with Chapecoense on August 16. That result continued a sequence of five consecutive draws, leaving the visitors unbeaten but without a victory across their last five games. During this run, they have averaged 1.0 goal scored and 1.0 conceded per match.

Over the full Serie A campaign, Bahia have recorded eight victories, ten draws and five defeats. Their attacking average of 1.4 goals per game is higher than Vitória's, while they have conceded an average of 1.2. The visitors have accumulated 34 points from 23 matches. Their five straight draws have slowed their progress despite preserving their unbeaten sequence, and the team now approaches the derby seeking to turn competitive performances into a win.

Corner numbers have been particularly consistent in Bahia's league fixtures. More than 7.5 corners were recorded in 28 of their last 30 Serie A matches. Meanwhile, two of their previous ten league games finished without a goal. The broader scoring figures still suggest a side capable of contributing in attack, but the repeated draws underline how difficult Bahia have recently found it to establish a decisive advantage.

Ademir and Everton Ribeiro remain unavailable but are in physical transition, while Léo Vieira continues to receive treatment. Erick is another confirmed absence after receiving his third yellow card in the previous round. These absences give Rogério Ceni decisions to make as Bahia attempt to end their run of draws.

Vitória vs Bahia Match Analysis

The available numbers point towards a closely contested Ba-Vi derby. Vitória have the stronger modelled win probability at 44%, compared with 29% for Bahia and 27% for the draw. The match odds are similarly competitive, with Vitória priced at 2.60, the draw at 3.20 and Bahia at 2.87. Home advantage and Vitória's long-standing Serie A record when hosting this opponent support the hosts, but Bahia's five-match unbeaten sequence prevents the away side from being discounted.

Goals markets are also finely balanced. The probability of both teams scoring is 53%, compared with 47% for at least one side failing to score. The under 2.5-goal option stands at 51%, narrowly ahead of the over at 49%. Vitória's last five matches have produced averages of 1.0 scored and 1.6 conceded, while Bahia's corresponding figures are 1.0 and 1.0. The latest head-to-head meeting ended 1-1 on March 11, 2026, and five of the previous six encounters featured goals from both teams. Across the supplied head-to-head summary, Vitória have one win, one draw and three defeats, averaging 1.0 goal scored and 1.4 conceded.

The first half could be especially significant. Vitória's strong home record before the interval combines with a 74% probability for at least one first-half goal. Bahia's capacity to remain competitive and Vitória's recent improvement make this an open contest in terms of the result, even though the total-goals probabilities remain almost evenly divided. Both teams have clear incentives to pursue victory: Vitória are looking to build on the Botafogo result, while Bahia need to convert their run of draws into three points.

Probable Lineups for Vitória vs Bahia

Vitória: Lucas Arcanjo; Emanuel Brítez, Cacá, Luan Cândido and Ramon; Zé Vitor, Emmanuel Martínez and Matheuzinho; Diego Tarzia, Erick and Renê.
Coach: Jair Ventura.

Bahia: Ronaldo; Gómez or Marcos Victor, David Duarte, Mingo and Luciano Juba; Acevedo, Jean Lucas and Nestor; Erick Pulga, Alejo Véliz and Sanabria or Willian José.
Coach: Rogério Ceni.

Vitória vs Bahia prediction from BetMines: Both Teams To Score (Yes) with 53% probability.