Wales host Denmark at Cardiff City Stadium on Sunday, October 4, in a UEFA Nations League Group A4 match between two sides looking to build on mixed starts to the competition. Wales claimed their first points with a 2-1 home win over Norway on Thursday, while Denmark arrive after a 4-2 defeat to Portugal. The visitors beat Wales 2-0 on September 27 and sit second in the group, with the hosts fourth. Wales will hope their home form can help reverse that recent result, but Denmark have already shown they can score regularly despite their uneven results.

Wales Recent Form and Key Stats

Wales lost their opening two Nations League matches against Portugal and Denmark without scoring, before overcoming Norway on October 1. The 2-1 victory ended an almost year-long wait for a win and gave them a timely lift ahead of another match in Cardiff. Norway were reduced to ten players in the second half, although the contest remained close by the underlying numbers: Wales recorded 1.05 expected goals to Norway’s 1.30, and both teams created two big chances.

Neco Williams scored the winner against Norway and registered two shots. Across their last five matches, Wales have one win, one draw and three defeats, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. Their Nations League record stands at one win and two losses, with averages of 0.7 goals scored and 1.3 allowed per game. Those figures underline why producing another positive attacking display matters after their breakthrough against Norway.

Home results offer more encouragement. Wales have gone five home matches without defeat in regulation time across all competitions, winning two and drawing three in that sequence. They have also avoided a half-time deficit in 20 of their last 22 home games. Harry Wilson, Nathan Broadhead, Karl Darlow, Joe Rodon and Isaak Davies are absent through injury, but Wales reported no new fitness concerns after the Norway match.

Denmark Recent Form and Key Stats

Denmark began their Nations League campaign with a narrow defeat to Norway, responded by beating Wales and then lost 4-2 to Portugal on October 1. They have one win, two draws and two defeats across their last five matches, scoring an average of 1.4 goals and conceding 1.6. Their three games in this Nations League campaign have brought six goals scored, alongside an average of 2.3 conceded per match.

The Portugal defeat still offered evidence of Denmark’s attacking threat. Mikkel Damsgaard contributed a goal and an assist, taking him to six direct goal contributions in his last five matches for the national team. Rasmus Hojlund also scored against Portugal, his second goal of this Nations League campaign, while Gustav Isaksen scored when Denmark faced Wales the previous weekend. Patrick Dorgu has returned to Manchester United for treatment, and Adam Daghim is a minor doubt after coming off at half-time against Portugal.

Results away from home have been less convincing than Denmark’s scoring figures. They are winless in their last four away matches, drawing one and losing three, and have won only two of their last 11 on the road since October 2023. Even so, Denmark have scored at least twice in five of their last six away games. That combination of away goals and inconsistent results makes their visit to Cardiff difficult to judge on the previous Wales meeting alone.

Wales vs Denmark Match Analysis

The recent head-to-head record favors Denmark. They have won the last four meetings, including the 2-0 result on September 27. Across the five matches in the supplied head-to-head summary, Wales have one win and four defeats, averaging 0.4 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. Wales therefore have a clear challenge: to turn Thursday’s improved home performance into a better result against an opponent that has repeatedly kept them at bay.

There are reasons to expect a more open contest than the previous meeting. Wales scored twice against Norway after drawing blanks in their first two group games, while Denmark’s three Nations League matches have produced six goals for and seven against. Denmark’s 4-2 loss to Portugal showed both their ability to find the net and the difficulty they have had keeping goals out. Wales, meanwhile, have conceded in each of their three group fixtures, though their five-match unbeaten home run gives them a platform from which to respond.

For this Wales vs Denmark preview, the central question is whether Wales can sustain their renewed scoring touch against a side with a strong recent record in this fixture. Denmark’s away winless streak gives the hosts encouragement, but the visitors’ scoring record on the road suggests Wales may have to find another goal to make the most of home advantage.

Wales vs Denmark prediction from BetMines: Both Teams To Score (Yes) with 56% probability.