Wales host Norway at Cardiff City Stadium on Thursday, October 1, in UEFA Nations League Group A4. Wales earned promotion to League A in the previous edition, but their return has begun with two defeats and no goals scored. Norway sit second in the group after opening with a win over Denmark and then losing to Portugal. For the hosts, this first home match of the campaign is a chance to change direction; for the visitors, it is an opportunity to respond to Sunday’s defeat. Recent results point to different levels of attacking output, although Norway’s run of conceding goals leaves an opening for Wales.

Wales’ Recent Form and Key Stats

Wales started their Nations League campaign with a 1-0 defeat to Portugal before losing 2-0 to Denmark on September 27. Those results leave them fourth in Group A4 with no points, no goals scored and an average of 1.5 goals conceded per match. Their difficulties extend beyond this competition: across their last five matches, Wales have recorded two draws and three defeats, scoring an average of 0.6 goals and conceding 1.4.

The Denmark match showed why an improvement in attack is so important. Wales had 38% possession and 14 touches in the opposition box, compared with Denmark’s 47. They produced 0.62 expected goals and created two big chances but could not score. Neco Williams offered a notable contribution, winning 13 defensive duels and taking a team-high three shots. Kieffer Moore, meanwhile, finished with 0.06 expected goals after leading the attack.

Playing at home gives Wales a different setting, but their recent record there is mixed: they have won only one of their last six home games in all competitions, drawing two and losing three. They have, however, avoided being behind at half-time in 20 of their last 22 home matches. Craig Bellamy has no new fitness concerns from the Denmark game, while Harry Wilson, Nathan Broadhead, Karl Darlow and Joe Rodon remain sidelined through injury.

Norway’s Recent Form and Key Stats

Norway began their Group A4 schedule with a 3-2 win over Denmark before a 2-1 home defeat to Portugal on September 27. Their two Nations League games have produced averages of 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded. Across their last five matches in all competitions, they have three wins, one draw and one defeat, with averages of 1.8 goals for and 1.4 against. They have also lost just one of their last seven away games.

The defeat to Portugal came despite substantial chances for Norway. They registered 2.52 expected goals, took 22 shots, put nine on target and created six big chances, yet converted only one of them. Erling Haaland scored in that match, taking his national-team record to 65 goals in 57 appearances. He has also scored 10 times in his last seven matches for club and country. Martin Odegaard recorded 113 touches, four key passes and one big chance created against Portugal.

Norway’s scoring streak is striking: they have found the net in 23 consecutive matches, while each of their last 14 games has featured more than 1.5 total goals. Their defensive record is less reassuring. Both teams have scored in their last 12 matches, and Norway have conceded at least once in every game in that sequence. Alexander Sorloth is ruled out, Julian Ryerson is a doubt after picking up a knock, and David Wolfe is available again after serving a suspension.

Wales vs Norway Match Analysis

The contrast between Wales’ goalless start and Norway’s sustained scoring run is central to this UEFA Nations League preview. Wales will want more attacking involvement than they managed against Denmark, especially with this being their first home game of the campaign. Norway, despite their defeat to Portugal, created enough chances in that match to suggest they can put the hosts under pressure. Their sequence of 12 games without a clean sheet also means Wales have reason to look for opportunities of their own.

Wales have won both previous meetings recorded in the head-to-head summary, with the last encounter finishing 4-1 in 2011. Those results provide historical context, but the current campaign tells a different story: Wales have lost twice without scoring, whereas Norway have a win, a defeat and four goals from their opening two Group A4 fixtures. The hosts’ tendency to stay level or ahead at half-time in home matches may make this a close contest early on. Over the full match, though, Norway’s recent scoring consistency gives the visitors the stronger case.

Wales vs Norway prediction from BetMines: Norway win (2) with 43% probability.