West Bromwich Albion welcome Burnley to The Hawthorns on Sunday, August 23, for an 11:00 Championship fixture between teams that have made contrasting starts to the campaign. The hosts enter the match with six consecutive victories across friendly and competitive outings, while newly relegated Burnley continue to search for a first win after a difficult sequence stretching across 15 matches. West Bromwich Albion are fifth in the Championship after winning their opening league game, whereas Burnley sit 11th following a draw in their first fixture. Current win probabilities give the home side a 55% chance of victory, compared with 26% for the draw and 19% for an away win.

West Bromwich Albion Recent Form and Key Statistics

West Bromwich Albion have built considerable momentum. They won all four of their preseason matches before opening their competitive schedule with an emphatic 4-1 victory over Rotherham in the first round of the EFL Cup. That run continued in the Championship on August 15, when the Baggies defeated Norwich City 2-1 away from home.

The result at Norwich gave West Bromwich Albion a league record of one win, no draws and no defeats, with averages of 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Looking across their five most recent matches, their numbers are even more impressive: five victories, an average of 3.2 goals scored and only 0.8 conceded per game. Those figures underline the balance behind their perfect sequence, with productive attacking displays supported by relatively controlled defensive performances.

Returning to The Hawthorns gives the hosts an opportunity to transfer their excellent recent form into their first home Championship assignment covered by the season data. However, their longer-term home league statistics also contain a note of caution. Three of West Bromwich Albion's last 10 Championship matches at home ended without a goal from either team, and the same was true in three of their last 10 league fixtures overall. The current winning run therefore provides a strong argument in their favour, but previous low-scoring results show that breaking the deadlock cannot automatically be taken for granted.

• Last five matches: five wins, no draws and no defeats.
• Average across those matches: 3.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded.
• Championship record this season: one win from one match.
• Latest result: a 2-1 away victory against Norwich City.

Burnley Recent Form and Key Statistics

Burnley arrive with a very different recent record. They did not win any of their six preseason fixtures and had to recover from two goals down to draw 2-2 at home against West Ham United on August 16. That comeback earned them a point in their Championship opener, leaving their early league record at no wins, one draw and no defeats, with averages of 2.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded.

Across their last five matches, Burnley have registered no victories, three draws and two defeats. They scored an average of 1.2 goals per game during that period while conceding 1.6. More broadly, the Clarets have not won in their last 15 matches. Their away record is another major concern, as they lost their final five away league fixtures of the previous season and have conceded at least once in each of their last 17 matches on the road.

Defensive vulnerability has not been restricted to away assignments. Burnley have allowed at least one goal in 23 of their last 24 matches, which will be particularly relevant against opponents averaging more than three goals across their latest five outings. Their first-half record also points to repeated early difficulties: Burnley have been behind at the interval in each of their last four matches and in seven of their last 10 away games.

There has been at least one first-half goal in 22 of Burnley's last 24 matches. That pattern suggests the opening 45 minutes could be important, especially if West Bromwich Albion can reproduce the attacking efficiency that has driven their six-match winning sequence. Burnley's comeback against West Ham nevertheless demonstrates that their opening league match remained competitive even after they fell two goals behind.

• Last five matches: no wins, three draws and two defeats.
• Average across those matches: 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded.
• Current winless sequence: 15 matches.
• Away defensive run: at least one goal conceded in 17 consecutive away matches.

West Bromwich Albion vs Burnley Match Analysis

The form comparison gives West Bromwich Albion the clearer platform. The hosts have won their last six friendly and competitive fixtures, scored four times in their first cup match and followed that performance with two goals at Norwich. Burnley, by contrast, remain without a victory in 15 matches and have repeatedly conceded both overall and away from home. The difference is also reflected in the win model, which places West Bromwich Albion ahead with a 55% probability.

The head-to-head record offers Burnley some encouragement and prevents this from looking entirely straightforward. The most recent meeting finished 1-1 on March 11, 2025. Across the supplied head-to-head summary from West Bromwich Albion's perspective, the Baggies have no wins, four draws and one defeat, averaging 0.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. Recent momentum therefore favours the hosts, but the direct meetings have generally been closely balanced.

The available goal indicators are mixed. Burnley's defensive record and the regularity of first-half goals in their matches support the possibility of an early breakthrough, while the model assigns 73% probability to over 0.5 first-half goals. At the same time, under 2.5 total goals is rated at 56%, and both teams not to score stands at 55%. This creates a match profile in which West Bromwich Albion may have the stronger opportunity to take control without the data necessarily pointing to a high-scoring contest.

Home advantage, perfect recent form and Burnley's prolonged wait for a victory all strengthen the case for West Bromwich Albion. The main reservations come from the Baggies' unfavourable head-to-head summary and Burnley's ability to recover for a 2-2 draw in their league opener. Even so, the contrast between West Bromwich Albion's five straight wins and Burnley's run of no victories, together with the visitors' sequence of conceding in 17 consecutive away matches, makes a home success the most coherent outcome.

West Bromwich Albion vs Burnley prediction from BetMines: West Bromwich Albion win (1) with 55% probability.