Thursday, May 1st, at San Mamés Stadium, Athletic Club hosts Manchester United in the first leg of the UEFA Europa League semi-finals. The home side, on the verge of qualifying for next season's Champions League through La Liga, are aiming to defeat the Red Devils over two legs to earn a shot at glory in the final, which will be played in their own stadium on May 21. The Basque side, who haven’t reached the final of this competition since the 2011/12 season, have enjoyed an excellent European campaign, finishing second in the group stage and then eliminating Roma and Rangers in the Round of 16 and Quarter-finals, respectively. Valverde’s team has shown great defensive strength, conceding just 10 goals in their 12 Europa League matches so far. Manchester United arrive in Bilbao with winning the Europa League as their only remaining goal of the season, following a deeply disappointing Premier League campaign that currently sees them in 14th place. However, Amorim’s side have been a different beast in Europe, showing a level of focus and resilience that’s been missing domestically. After finishing third in the group stage, United knocked out fellow Basques Real Sociedad in the Round of 16 and pulled off a stunning comeback against Olympique Lyon in the Quarter-finals, overturning a three-goal deficit in extra time. Notably, they come into this clash as the only unbeaten team left in the competition, hoping to replicate their 2016/17 triumph and salvage what has been an otherwise forgettable season.

Athletic Club's Recent Form and Key Stats 

Athletic Club are in good form, having lost just one of their last 10 matches across all competitions (5 wins and 4 draws). They recently beat Las Palmas 1-0 in La Liga, thanks to Inaki Williams’ 11th goal of the season, after narrowly losing 1-0 in stoppage time against Real Madrid the previous week.

The Basques have been one of the standout teams in this season’s Europa League, finishing second in their group behind Lazio with 19 points (6 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss). At home, Valverde’s men have been flawless, winning all six games, scoring 14 goals and conceding only 2.

Manchester United 's Recent Form and Key Stats 

Excluding the extra-time win over Olympique Lyon, Manchester United haven’t won a match since March 16, when they thrashed Leicester 0-3 away. In the Premier League, they are on a poor run with 3 losses and 2 draws in their last five matches, including a 1-1 draw at Bournemouth last weekend (Hojlund scoring in the 96th minute).

Things look entirely different in Europe, where United remain unbeaten with 7 wins and 5 draws. On the road, they’ve picked up 2 wins and 4 draws, scoring 11 goals and conceding 8 across six away matches.

Athletic Club vs Manchester United Prediction and Tactical Preview

Both sides have shown they’re determined to go all the way in this competition: the Basques motivated by the chance to lift the trophy at home, and United by the need to find meaning in an otherwise disastrous season. Historically, Athletic have the edge, having beaten United twice in their only official meetings – the 2011/12 Round of 16 – with scores of 2-1 and 2-3.

Injuries and Absentees: Valverde may have to do without Sancet in the attacking midfield role, though Nico Williams is expected to return. Amorim faces a selection crisis with a long list of absentees including Dalot, Lisandro Martinez, Zirkzee, and de Ligt. On the positive side, Diallo is back in contention.

Athletic’s unbeaten home record, coupled with United’s injury woes and strong local support, suggest the hosts might just edge this encounter. The Basques have conceded only two goals at home in the Europa League this season and hold a psychological advantage thanks to past victories.

For these reasons, the BetMines algorithm prediction for Athletic Club vs Manchester United leans towards a victory for the hosts coached by Ernesto Valverde.

• The BetMines Algorithm prediction for Athletic Club vs Manchester United predicts the sign 1 at 53%
• The BetMines Algorithm prediction for Athletic Club vs Manchester United predicts the sign X at 23%
• The BetMines Algorithm prediction for Athletic Club vs Manchester United predicts the sign 2 at 24%

Predicted Lineups Athletic Club vs Manchester United

Athletic Club (4-2-3-1): Simón; Gorosabel, Vivian, Álvarez, Berchiche; Ruiz de Galarreta, Jauregizar; I. Williams, Berenguer, N. Williams; Guruzeta. Manager: Ernesto Valverde

Manchester United (3-4-2-1): Onana; Yoro, Maguire, Shaw; Mazraoui, Ugarte, Casemiro, Dorgu; Garnacho, Fernandes; Hojlund. Manager: Rúben Amorim