Burnley welcome Derby County to Turf Moor on September 19, 2026, for an important Championship fixture between two teams enduring difficult starts to the season. The hosts sit 24th after failing to win any of their opening seven league matches, while Derby are 22nd with one victory from the same number of games. Burnley have collected three draws and suffered four defeats, compared with Derby County’s record of one win, one draw and five losses. Neither side enters this contest with much momentum, and their modest attacking numbers suggest that the first goal could carry considerable weight. Burnley have scored an average of 1.1 goals per Championship match, while Derby’s average stands at 0.9. The hosts nevertheless have the slightly stronger head-to-head record and a 42% win probability, compared with 31% for the visitors and 26% for the draw.

Burnley Recent Form and Key Statistics

Burnley are still searching for their first Championship victory of the campaign after recording three draws and four defeats. Their latest result was a 3-1 loss against Swansea City on September 12, extending a poor sequence in which the Clarets have taken no wins from their last five matches. Across that five-game period, they drew twice and lost three times while averaging 1.0 goal scored and 2.2 conceded per match.

The longer-term trend is even more concerning for the home side. Burnley have gone 22 matches without a victory, while they have also failed to win 20 of their last 21 home fixtures. Turf Moor has therefore not provided the results they need, despite the potential importance of playing this relegation battle on home ground. Their defensive record has been another major problem: at least one goal has been conceded in 29 of Burnley’s last 31 matches.

After seven Championship games, the hosts are averaging 1.1 goals scored and 2.3 allowed. The source article also highlights that Burnley have scored eight times across those fixtures but have been held to one goal or fewer in five of them. Their difficulties have frequently appeared before the interval, with the Clarets losing at half-time in seven of their last 10 home matches and in nine of their last 14 games overall.

• Championship record: zero wins, three draws and four defeats.
• Last five matches: zero wins, two draws and three losses.
• Scoring average: 1.1 goals per league game.
• Conceding average: 2.3 goals per league game.
• Current winless sequence: 22 matches.

Derby County Recent Form and Key Statistics

Derby County are only two positions above their opponents and have also struggled to produce consistent results. The Rams have won once, drawn once and lost five times in seven Championship fixtures. They arrive after a 2-1 defeat against Birmingham City on September 12, their third consecutive loss according to the supplied match information. Before that result, Derby had failed to score in back-to-back defeats, underlining the attacking issues that have shaped their start.

The visitors have scored six goals in seven league matches, equivalent to an average of 0.9 per game, while conceding 1.9. Their last-five record is one victory and four defeats, with averages of only 0.6 goals scored and 1.8 allowed. Those figures show why Derby may find it difficult to take full advantage of Burnley’s defensive vulnerability, even though the hosts have conceded with notable regularity.

Derby’s results also tend to be decisive rather than balanced. They have not drawn in their last 15 away Championship matches, while 24 of their last 25 games in all competitions and 23 of their last 24 Championship fixtures have produced a winner. Another significant pattern concerns the opening period: there has been over 0.5 first-half goals in Derby’s last 13 away Championship games. The same outcome has occurred in their last 13 matches overall and their last 12 Championship fixtures.

• Championship record: one win, one draw and five defeats.
• Last five matches: one victory and four losses.
• Scoring average: 0.9 goals per league game.
• Conceding average: 1.9 goals per league game.
• Away league sequence: 15 matches without a draw.

Burnley vs Derby County Match Analysis

This Championship meeting brings together a home side without a victory and an away team that has lost five of its first seven league games. Burnley’s 42% win probability gives them a narrow statistical advantage, but their extended winless run makes a home success far from straightforward. Derby County have a 31% chance of taking the points, while the draw is rated at 26%.

The head-to-head numbers offer some encouragement to Burnley. Across the supplied five-match summary, the Clarets recorded two wins and three draws without losing, averaging 1.2 goals scored and only 0.4 conceded. However, the most recent encounter finished 2-1 on August 26, 2025. The source information also states that three of the previous four meetings ended goalless and that only three of the past nine produced more than 2.5 goals, reinforcing the possibility of another restrained contest.

There are competing trends to consider. Burnley have conceded in 29 of their last 31 matches, while the Both Teams To Score probability is 53%. Derby’s repeated first-half goal pattern also indicates that an early breakthrough cannot be dismissed. On the other hand, both attacks have operated below one or only slightly above one goal per league game, and Derby have scored just 0.6 per match across their latest five outings. Burnley have also managed no more than one goal in five of their seven league fixtures.

The Over/Under numbers reflect how finely balanced the matchup appears, with Under 2.5 goals rated at 52% and Over 2.5 goals at 48%. Burnley’s defensive record creates a route for Derby to score, but the visitors’ limited output makes a high-scoring away performance difficult to support from the available evidence. Likewise, the Clarets’ slightly better attacking return has not translated into a league victory. With both teams under pressure and recent head-to-head meetings frequently producing few goals, a controlled match with limited finishing could be the most coherent expectation.

Burnley vs Derby County prediction from BetMines: Under 2.5 goals with 52% probability.