Empoli vs Roma Prediction: Preview and Analysis of the Match | Serie A

After securing a 2-1 victory in the first leg of the Europa League Round of 16 against Athletic Bilbao, Claudio Ranieri's Roma shifts focus back to Serie A, aiming to continue their remarkable comeback towards a European spot. Matchday 28 presents what appears to be a straightforward fixture on paper but could prove more challenging than expected: an away clash against Roberto D'Aversa's Empoli. At the Stadio Castellani, two teams with contrasting 2024/2025 Serie A campaigns face off. Empoli started the season strongly, emerging as a surprise package with impressive results against top-tier teams. Among their notable victories was a 2-1 win over Roma at the Stadio Olimpico on August 25. However, as the months passed, their form declined drastically, plunging them into a relegation battle. Since mid-December, Empoli has suffered a steep downturn, slipping to third from the bottom. The disappointment has been partially offset by their historic qualification for the Coppa Italia semifinals, achieved after a penalty shootout against Juventus following a 1-1 draw. Roma’s season has been the complete opposite. Following a disastrous start that led to the sackings of De Rossi and Juric, the Giallorossi turned their fortunes around from mid-December onwards. They are currently on an 11-match unbeaten streak in Serie A, climbing from the lower half of the table to within touching distance of the top six. Now that their resurgence is nearly complete, it is hard to imagine an experienced coach like Claudio Ranieri allowing this dream—once deemed impossible—to slip away.

Empoli's Shape and Key Statistics

Empoli ended a four-game losing streak in Serie A with a 1-1 draw away at Genoa. During that run, they faced tough opponents like Atalanta, Milan, and Juventus, but their struggles go beyond just the fixtures. The team has collected only three points in their last 12 league matches (3 draws, 9 losses).

Playing at home does not necessarily favor Empoli, as they hold the dubious distinction of being the lowest-scoring home team across Europe’s top five leagues, netting just five goals in 13 matches. Defensively, they have conceded 19 goals at the Castellani, with 13 coming in their last five home games—including a crushing 0-5 defeat to Atalanta in their most recent home outing.

Roma's Shape Form and Key Statistics

Roma enters this fixture on a five-game winning streak across all competitions, with four consecutive Serie A victories. Their last league defeat dates back to December 15, when they lost 2-0 to Como. Since then, they have secured eight wins and three draws in Serie A.

Ranieri’s side has also won back-to-back away games against Venezia and Parma, both by a narrow 1-0 margin. While this highlights their defensive solidity, it also underscores their struggles in attack when playing away. Roma has one of the weakest offensive records on the road in Serie A, with only 12 goals scored in 13 away fixtures.

Empoli vs Roma Prediction and Tactical Preview

Both teams approach this match at a crucial juncture in the season. Empoli desperately needs to build on their draw against Genoa to escape the relegation zone, likely opting for a counter-attacking approach. Their hopes may rest on Sebastiano Esposito, who has failed to score in his last seven games.

On the other hand, Roma must maintain their European qualification push while also managing squad rotation ahead of next Thursday’s crucial Europa League second-leg clash away at Athletic Bilbao.

With defender Gianluca Mancini suspended, Ranieri may implement some squad rotation, though recent performances from backup players like Eldor Shomurodov—who has scored twice in his last three appearances—offer reassurance.

Given Empoli’s poor home-scoring record and Roma’s struggles to score away, BetMines’ algorithm predicts that Under 2.5 Goals is the most likely outcome for this match.

• The BetMines prediction for the Empoli vs Roma match predicts Under 2.5 goals at 58%.
• The BetMines prediction for the Empoli vs Roma match predicts Over 2.5 goals at 42%.

Predicted Lineups for Empoli vs Roma

EMPOLI (3-4-2-1): Silvestri; Goglichidze, Marianucci, De Sciglio; Gyasi, Grassi, Henderson, Pezzella; Esposito, Cacace; Colombo. Coach: D'Aversa.

ROMA (3-5-2): Svilar; Rensch, Hummels, Ndicka; Saelemaekers, Koné, Paredes, Pellegrini, Angeliño; Soulè, Shomurodov. Coach: Ranieri.