On Saturday, October 11, at the A. Le Coq Arena in Tallinn, Italy visits Estonia aiming to secure crucial points in their race for qualification to the next FIFA World Cup 2026, which will be hosted by the United States, Mexico, and Canada. The Azzurri currently sit second in Group I with 9 points, six behind leaders Norway, but with one game in hand over the Norwegians and level with Israel, who have played one more match. Gennaro Gattuso’s men have only one goal: to beat Estonia—possibly repeating the 5-0 result from the first leg last September—to consolidate their second-place position and continue chasing the top spot ahead of the crucial November 16 clash against Haaland and company. Estonia, on the other hand, will play mostly for pride. Jurgen Henn’s team is stuck at 3 points after five matches and no longer has any realistic chance of qualifying. Nevertheless, the Estonians will aim to earn a positive result in front of their home crowd to avoid finishing bottom of the group, a spot currently held by Moldova, still without a point.

Estonia's Recent Form and Key Stats

Estonia approach this match in poor form, coming off three consecutive defeats in which they have conceded an average of 3 goals per game while scoring just 0.34. Their latest loss came in the reverse fixture against Italy on September 5, when Henn’s side were crushed 5-0 at the New Balance Arena in Bergamo.

After the first five matchdays, the Estonian national team has collected only 3 points from one win and four losses, averaging 1 goal scored and 2.6 conceded per game. They are a fragile side defensively and lack attacking sharpness, having failed to score in their last two matches against Norway and Italy.

Their home record also offers little optimism: in their last five matches in Tallinn, Estonia have managed just one win (3-1 against Azerbaijan on October 11, 2024) and four defeats, confirming their struggles to make home advantage count.

Italy's Recent Form and Key Stats

Gennaro Gattuso’s Italy come into the match against Estonia full of confidence after three consecutive wins, averaging 4 goals scored and just 1 conceded per game. In their last outing, on September 8, the Azzurri defeated Israel 5-4 away from home in a thrilling, high-scoring contest decided in the 91st minute by a goal from Newcastle midfielder Sandro Tonali.

The four-time World Cup champions currently occupy second place in Group I with 9 points from 3 wins and 1 loss. Donnarumma and his teammates are averaging 3 goals scored per match and have conceded 1.75 on average, keeping two clean sheets in four games.

Italy’s away form shows some inconsistencies: in their last three away matches, they have recorded one defeat (3-0 to Norway), one draw (3-3 with Germany), and one win (5-4 over Israel), scoring 8 goals and conceding 10 overall.

Estonia vs Italy Prediction and Tactical Overview

The prediction for Estonia vs Italy clearly favors the visitors, who won the first leg 5-0 just a month ago. According to BetMines, Italy’s chances of victory are estimated at 61%, while a home win for Estonia stands at just 16%. A draw appears slightly more possible but still unlikely, at 23%.

Italy’s dominance over Estonia is evident: the last three head-to-head meetings have all ended with wins for the Azzurri, who have averaged 3.3 goals per game, while the Estonians have averaged only 0.3.

Given the technical gap and the result of the previous match, BetMines predicts a game with over 2 goals scored, with a probability of 62%. The Over 2.5 goals outcome has occurred in seven of Estonia’s last ten matches and in eight of Italy’s last ten across all competitions.

The feeling is that the visitors will control the game thanks to their superior technical quality and the need to secure all three points to strengthen their position in the group. It is also possible that Italy will keep a clean sheet, just as they did in the recent first leg.

Probable Lineups Estonia vs Italy

ESTONIA (5-4-1): Hein; Teniste, Kuusk, Paskotsi, Mets, Kolvart; Kait, Vassiljev, Miller, Poom; Sappinen. Coach: J. Henn

ITALY (4-3-3): Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Mancini, Bastoni, Dimarco; Barella, Tonali, Frattesi; Raspadori, Retegui, Kean. Coach: G. Gattuso