At Signal Iduna Park in Dortmund, also known as Westfalenstadion, Germany hosts Italy in the second leg of the Nations League quarterfinals. The winner will advance to the semifinals and face either Denmark or Portugal. The hosts have a significant advantage after winning the first leg 2-1 in Milan. Despite Nagelsmann's team securing the victory, the San Siro match was balanced. The Azzurri took an early lead after just nine minutes with a goal from Tonali. However, Germany responded with two headers—one from Kleindienst following a cross from Kimmich, and another from Goretzka after a corner kick from the inspired Kimmich. Italy, led by Spalletti, missed key chances, especially through Moise Kean, who had to carry the attacking burden after Retegui’s injury during training. The first-leg result means Italy must win by at least two goals to qualify for the Nations League Final Four without extra time or penalties. Meanwhile, Germany only needs a draw to keep their hopes alive for what would be their first-ever Nations League title.

Germany’s Recent Form and Key Statistics

Germany’s victory in Italy extended their unbeaten streak in competitive matches to 14 games (10 wins, 3 draws). Their last loss in regular time, excluding friendlies, dates back to the 2022 World Cup against Japan. In the last European Championship, they were eliminated by Spain in extra time due to Merino’s late goal.

In their last five matches, Germany recorded four wins and one draw, scoring an average of 2.6 goals per game and conceding just 0.6. One of the most in-form players is Tim Kleindienst, who has scored three goals in his last three international appearances.

Italy’s Recent Form and Key Statistics

Italy’s loss to Germany marked their second consecutive defeat, following their 1-0 loss to France on November 17, which cost them the top spot in Nations League Group A2. Over their last five games, Italy has won twice, drawn once, and lost twice, scoring nine goals while conceding eight.

To turn the tie around, Italy will need to capitalize on their strong away form, having won all three away matches in this Nations League edition. However, they have only won by a two-goal margin once—a 3-1 victory over France on September 2, 2024.

Germany vs Italy Prediction and Tactical Overview

Despite losing the first leg, Italy showed they can compete on equal terms with Germany. However, Spalletti’s team must be more disciplined in marking, as both conceded goals in Milan came from defensive lapses.

Germany, on the other hand, proved to be clinical, converting their chances efficiently. However, they also showed vulnerabilities, allowing Italy multiple scoring opportunities, with Kean missing key chances.

Additionally, this match will determine the World Cup qualification groups for both teams. The losing side will be placed in a group with Norway, Israel, Estonia, and Moldova, while the winner will face Slovakia, Northern Ireland, and Luxembourg—a significantly easier path.

Given the circumstances, Italy is expected to take control early, aiming to score within the first few minutes, just as they did in the first leg with Tonali’s goal. The match is likely to be intense, with both teams attacking and responding blow for blow.

In accordance with what happened in the first leg, the BetMines algorithm prediction for the Germany vs Italy match predicts more than 2.5 goals in total. 

• BetMines Algorithm prediction for the Germany vs Italy match predicts Over 2.5 goals at 54%.
• BetMines Algorithm prediction for the Germany vs Italy match predicts Under 2.5 goals at 46%. 

Predicted Lineups Germany vs Italy

Germany (4-2-3-1): Baumann; Kimmich, Rudiger, Tah, Schlotterbeck; Gross, Goretzka; Amiri, Musiala,  Adeyemi; Kleindienst. Coach: Nagelsmann.

Italy (3-5-2): Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Buongiorno, Bastoni; Politano, Barella, Tonali, Ricci, Udogie; Raspadori; Kean. Coach: Spalletti.