The UEFA Nations League quarter-finals bring a historic clash to the iconic Giuseppe Meazza Stadium in Milan, as Luciano Spalletti's Italy hosts Julian Nagelsmann's Germany. This is one of the most anticipated matches in international football, as both teams have shown impressive form. Despite finishing second in Group 2, just behind France, Italy managed to accumulate 13 points, while Germany topped Group 3 with 14 points. The Azzurri were narrowly edged out by France, who secured first place with a 3-1 victory in their final group match. Meanwhile, Germany had a much smoother path, dominating their group and finishing five points ahead of the Netherlands. Given the attacking philosophy of both teams, this match promises to be an exciting encounter with an unpredictable outcome.

Italy's Shape and Key Statistics

Since their Round of 16 exit against Switzerland in the last European Championship, Italy has undergone a transformation under Spalletti, who has brought consistency to their results. In the League A group stage, Italy remained unbeaten in five consecutive matches (four wins and one draw) before losing to France.

In their six Nations League group matches, Italy scored 13 goals and conceded 8. The numbers of the Azzurri's attack can still be increased in the future, if one considers that in Serie A, after several seasons, the top two scorers are actually Italians: Retegui and Kean. 

Germany's Shape and Key Statistics

Germany enters this match unbeaten in the current edition of the Nations League, with four wins and two draws. Nagelsmann's squad has been highly productive in attack, scoring 18 goals (an average of 3 per match) while conceding only 4.

Their chances of securing a positive result at San Siro look strong, given their away record in the Nations League: one win and two draws, including a 2-2 draw against Hungary, with 5 goals scored and 4 conceded.

Italy vs Germany Prediction and Tactical Overview

Luciano Spalletti is expected to stick with the 3-5-2 formation, which has been effective throughout the Nations League campaign. There is no shortage of alternatives for the former Napoli coach, since in attack he can count on the splendid moment of form of Kean and Raspadori, called upon not to make Retegui, stopped by an injury a few hours before the match, regret it. 

On the other hand, Germany faces attacking setbacks due to the absence of Kai Havertz and Florian Wirtz. The likely forward in Nagelsmann’s 4-2-3-1 system will be Deniz Undav (Stuttgart), supported by a creative trio of Sané, Musiala, and Adeyemi.

The last two meetings between these teams ended in a Germany victory (5-2) and a 1-1 draw, with both sides scoring in both matches. Given the offensive approach of both managers, the BetMines algorithm prediction for Italy vs Germany suggests that both teams will score at least one goal.

• The BetMines algorithm prediction for the Italy vs Germany match predicts that both teams will score at least one goal at 62%
• The BetMines algorithm prediction for the Italy vs Germany match predicts that at least one of the two teams will not score at 38%

Italy vs Germany Predicted Lineups

Italy (3-5-2): Donnarumma; Di Lorenzo, Buongiorno, Bastoni; Politano, Barella, Rovella, Tonali, Udogie; Raspadori, Kean. Coach: Spalletti

Germany (4-2-3-1): Nübel; Kimmich, Koch, Schlotterbeck, Mittelstädt; Andrich, Goretzka; Sané, Musiala, Adeyemi; Undav. Coach: Nagelsmann