Italy host Türkiye at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Bologna on Monday, October 5, in UEFA Nations League Group A1. The sides meet just a week after Italy's 4-1 victory on September 28, but both have played another match since: Italy drew 1-1 with France on Friday, while Türkiye lost 3-0 to Belgium. Italy are third in the group rankings with one win, one draw and one defeat; Türkiye are fourth after losing all three of their matches. The visitors need a change in results, although their recent away record suggests Italy cannot take another win for granted.

Italy's Recent Form and Key Stats

Italy recovered from an opening 2-0 defeat to Belgium by beating Türkiye 4-1 and then drawing with France. Against the French side, Italy recorded 1.55 expected goals and three big chances despite having only 35% possession. Alessandro Bastoni has scored in each of his last two Nations League appearances, adding another notable detail to Italy's recent attacking output.

Across their last five matches in all competitions, Italy have three wins, one draw and one defeat, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. Their three Nations League games have produced averages of 1.7 goals scored and 1.3 allowed. The home record offers further encouragement: Italy have won four of their last six home matches, scoring twice and keeping a clean sheet in each of those victories.

Those home games have also shown a consistent pattern for match goals. There have been more than 1.5 total goals in Italy's last 15 home matches, while each of their last 10 home fixtures has featured at least one second-half goal. Italy have led at half-time in 10 of their last 14 home games and in six of their last 10 Nations League matches. Those figures underline the value of a strong start, though Friday's draw showed they can create chances without dominating possession.

Türkiye's Recent Form and Key Stats

Türkiye arrive still looking for their first point in this Nations League campaign. Three defeats have brought eight goals conceded, with their 3-0 loss to Belgium on Friday following the 4-1 reverse against Italy. Their competition averages stand at 0.3 goals scored and 2.7 conceded per match. Over their last five games in all competitions, they have one win and four defeats, averaging 0.8 goals scored and 2.2 allowed.

The Belgium scoreline does not tell the whole story of Türkiye's attacking involvement. They had 47% possession, 1.39 expected goals and two big chances, as well as 40 touches in the opposition box. Turning that activity into goals will be important if they are to challenge an Italy side that has kept clean sheets in each of its four most recent home wins.

Türkiye also have a stronger recent away record than their current Nations League results might suggest, with four wins, one draw and just one loss across their last six away games. At least one second-half goal has been scored in each of their last 10 away matches, and the same has been true in 21 of their last 23 fixtures overall. Those are figures for total match goals, rather than goals scored by Türkiye alone, but they point to the possibility of another active second half.

Italy vs Türkiye Match Analysis

The immediate head-to-head result gives Italy a clear reference point, but their longer record against Türkiye is also favorable: three wins, two draws and no defeats in five meetings, with averages of 2.2 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. Last week's 4-1 win fits that trend. Italy's more consistent recent form and their sequence of home wins with clean sheets make them the stronger candidate to take the points again.

There is still a case for a competitive match. Türkiye created two big chances against Belgium despite losing 3-0, and four wins in their last six away fixtures show that their travels have not been uniformly difficult. Italy, meanwhile, will want to build on the chances they made against France rather than rely solely on the previous meeting. With both teams' recent fixtures regularly featuring second-half goals, the contest may remain open beyond the interval. The central question is whether Türkiye can turn their attacking involvement into a goal while limiting an Italy side that scored four against them only a week earlier.

Italy vs Türkiye prediction from BetMines: Italy win (1) with 48% probability.