On Tuesday, August 12, Qarabag and Shkendija face off at the Azersun Arena in Baku for the second leg of the UEFA Champions League third qualifying round. The advantage is all on the Azerbaijani side, who, after winning 0-1 in the first leg in Skopje, can rely on two out of three possible results to reach the final playoff round scheduled for the end of the month. For the Macedonians, the situation is more complicated: they must win by at least two goals to keep alive their historic dream of a first-ever appearance in a European group stage. A victory by just one goal would push the match into extra time and possibly penalties. The road to this stage has been completely different for the two teams. Qarabag easily knocked out Ireland’s Shelbourne (winning 3-0 at home and 0-1 away), confirming the solidity and experience built over recent years at the international level, including participation in the 2024/25 Europa League. Shkendija, on the other hand, struggled from the first round, needing extra time to overcome Wales’ The New Saints. Paradoxically, their supposedly toughest test — against Romanian champions FCSB — turned out to be their easiest: two wins out of two, including a surprising away victory at the National Arena in Bucharest. Now, however, the scenario is different. It’s no longer about defending a lead, but overturning a deficit against a team like Qarabag, who already in the first leg showed they could contain Macedonian enthusiasm, defending in an organized way and striking clinically when the chance arose.

Qarabag's Recent Form and Key Stats

By beating Shkendija 1-0 last Tuesday, thanks to Bayramov’s penalty in the 18th minute, Qarabag earned their third straight win after the double victory against Shelbourne. The Azerbaijanis are showing exceptional defensive resilience, having yet to concede a single goal in their first three official matches of the 2025/26 season. There’s curiosity about how their backline will handle stronger opponents when the time comes.

Qarabag boast a strong home record, unbeaten in ten games with nine wins and one draw in that span. Last season at the Azersun Arena, Gurbanov’s side recorded 15 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses, averaging 2.6 goals scored and just 0.5 conceded per match — promising numbers ahead of the return leg against the Macedonians.

Shkendija's Recent Form and Key Stats

After losing 1-0 to Qarabag, the Macedonian champions started their league campaign strongly, beating Shkupi 5-1 in their opener. The standout performer was Ibraimi, who scored twice in the second half, with Ramadani, Zejnullai, and Latifi adding the other goals. What stands out is Bekiri’s team’s contrasting performances: dominant at home, yet less clinical in front of goal against the Azerbaijanis.

In their last five official matches, Shkendija have recorded three wins, one draw, and one loss, averaging 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game. In their first two away games of the season, they drew 0-0 at The New Saints in the first UCL qualifying round and claimed a surprising 2-1 victory at the National Arena in Budapest against FCSB, showing they can be a tough opponent even away from home.

Qarabag vs Shkendija Prediction and Tactical Overview

The first leg between Qarabag and Shkendija was more balanced than expected, but in the end, the greater quality and international experience of the Azerbaijanis proved decisive in securing the win. According to the BetMines algorithm, Gurban Gurbanov’s side are clear favorites to win again in Baku.

After winning away, Qarabag should have little trouble prevailing at the Azersun Arena, where they have won eight of their last nine matches and are unbeaten in eleven. The hosts will also come into this match after a full week’s rest, while the visitors have been busy with the opening round of the Macedonian First League.

Tactically, this could be a cagey match. Qarabag will likely aim to score first to seal qualification, but will be careful not to leave themselves open to counterattacks. Shkendija, for their part, will need to push forward to level the tie, but without leaving gaps for Akhundzade and teammates to exploit on the break.

In this context, the BetMines prediction for Qarabag vs Shkendija slightly leans towards a match where one of the two teams may fail to score. Given that the home side are expected to come out on top, the most likely candidates to remain scoreless are the visitors.

• Qarabag vs Shkendija Prediction by BetMines: Qarabag to win (1) – 63%
  
  
• Qarabag vs Shkendija Prediction by BetMines: At least one team not to score – 51%

Predicted Lineups Qarabag vs Shkendija

QARABAG (4-2-3-1): Kochalski; Silva, Mustafazada, Medina, Bayramov; Bicalho, Borges; Andrade, Addai, Zoubir; Akhundzade. Manager: Gurban Gurbanov

SHKENDIJA (4-2-3-1): Gaye; Trumci, Fetai, Cake, Webster; Ramadani, Alhassan; Tamba, Krasniqi, Latifi; Ibraimi. Manager: Jeton Bekiri