On Tuesday, September 16, Xabi Alonso’s Real Madrid make their Champions League debut by hosting Roberto De Zerbi’s Olympique Marseille at the iconic Santiago Bernabéu. Los Blancos want to start strong, building on their excellent early-season form that currently sees them at the top of La Liga with a perfect record after four rounds. The Spaniards’ goal in the Champions League is to improve on last season by going beyond the quarterfinals and returning among Europe’s top four. The French side return to Europe’s top competition after the 2022/23 season, but they face one of the most challenging teams internationally. Olympique Marseille, who can boast one Champions League trophy compared to Madrid’s fifteen, have had a shaky domestic start, sitting fifth in Ligue 1 after the first four rounds. Although this clash looks extremely difficult on paper, De Zerbi’s men know that the new Champions League format still allows them to recover ground even after a slow start. As a minimum objective, OM approach the competition aiming to advance past the single-league phase and go as far as possible in the knockout rounds.

Real Madrid's recent form and key stats

Real Madrid have started this new season brilliantly, winning all of their first four La Liga matches. In the latest round, Xabi Alonso’s men earned a 2-1 away win at Real Sociedad thanks to goals from Arda Güler and Mbappé, the latter already netting 4 goals this season.

In this early stage, Los Blancos are averaging 2 goals scored per game while conceding just 0.5. Under the Basque coach, the defense seems to have regained its best solidity, also thanks to the return of Militão, who missed most of last season due to injury.

At the Santiago Bernabéu, Real Madrid have been dominant, winning all of their last six home matches. Focusing only on the Champions League, they have lost just two of their last 19 home games in the competition.

Olympique Marseille's recent form and key stats

Olympique Marseille have shown mixed performances so far, with two wins and two losses in their first four games of the season. Last weekend, Roberto De Zerbi’s side demolished Lorient 4-0 thanks to goals from Greenwood, Pavard, Gomes, and Aguerd.

OM remain an attacking-minded team but quite vulnerable defensively when put under pressure. In Ligue 1 this season, they have averaged 2.25 goals scored per game but have conceded one goal on average as well.

One of the key weaknesses holding Marseille back from competing for the Ligue 1 title has been their away form. Les Phocéens have won just one of their last eight away matches, including their first two of this season against Rennes and Lyon.

Real Madrid vs Olympique Marseille prediction and tactical overview

Real Madrid and Olympique Marseille are two teams that enjoy playing proactive football, which means this game is likely to deliver excitement and goals. According to the BetMines algorithm, more than 2 goals are expected, with the Over 2.5 goals option having a 58% probability.

On the Madrid side, Xabi Alonso will be without key players such as Bellingham, Camavinga, Mendy, and Rüdiger. However, the former Leverkusen coach can rely on the strong form of his attacking unit, with Vinícius Júnior looking revitalized compared to last season, already scoring twice this year.

For the French side, Guoiri’s fitness remains uncertain, while Pirola and Blanco are unavailable. De Zerbi can still count on Greenwood’s creativity and the vast international experience of Aubameyang, who is competing with Paixão for a starting spot.

• Real Madrid vs Olympique Marseille prediction by BetMines: Over 2.5 goals with 58% probability
  
  
• Real Madrid vs Olympique Marseille prediction by BetMines: Under 2.5 goals with 42% probability

Probable lineups Real Madrid vs Olympique Marseille

REAL MADRID (4-2-3-1): Courtois; Alexander-Arnold, Militão, Huijsen, Carreras; Tchouaméni, Ceballos; Díaz, Güler, Vinícius Júnior; Mbappé. Coach: Xabi Alonso

OLYMPIQUE MARSEILLE (4-2-3-1): Rulli; Murillo, Pavard, Aguerd, Medina; Gomes, Højbjerg; Greenwood, Nadir, Weah; Paixão. Coach: Roberto De Zerbi