After facing each other in the opening match of the Europa League group stage, Roma and Athletic Club meet again in European competition, this time fighting for a place in the quarter-finals. Many things have changed for the Giallorossi since that day, starting with the coach on the bench. Since last November 14, Claudio Ranieri has taken over, replacing Ivan Juric, who is now managing Southampton. This change has significantly impacted the team's performance in both Serie A and the Europa League. After a brief adjustment period, Roma, under the former Cagliari coach, has strung together a series of positive results that have brought them back into contention for a European spot in Serie A. Roma also fared well in Europe, securing a last-gasp qualification for the playoffs before easily dispatching Porto over two legs. While the Giallorossi took time to find their rhythm, the same cannot be said for Athletic Club, who have been consistently impressive since the start of the season. The Basque team, currently fourth in La Liga behind Barcelona, Atletico Madrid, and Real Madrid, finished second in their Europa League group with the same points as Lazio, who topped the group but had a superior goal difference.

Roma's Shape and Key Statistics

Roma is enjoying an excellent run of form, as evidenced by their four consecutive wins across all competitions. Their latest victory came at the Stadio Olimpico, where they edged out Como 2-1. Notably, Como had defeated both Fiorentina and Napoli in the previous two rounds.

At the Olimpico, which is almost always sold out, Roma remains unbeaten in this Europa League campaign, collecting four wins and one draw (against Athletic Club). In these five home matches (including the playoffs), Roma has scored 10 goals and conceded just 3.

Athletic Club's Shape and Key Statistics

Athletic Club recently saw their six-match unbeaten streak (3 wins, 3 draws) come to an end with a 1-0 defeat to Atletico Madrid in La Liga. This setback does not jeopardize their current fourth-place position but could reduce their lead over Villarreal, who have a game in hand, to just one point.

How has Athletic Club performed in this season’s Europa League? Ernesto Valverde’s side has been nearly flawless, collecting 19 points with 6 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. Notably, both their draw and defeat came away from San Mamés.

Roma vs Athletic Club Prediction and Tactical Overview

One of Claudio Ranieri’s key achievements has been strengthening Roma’s defense, relying on a three-man backline and reintegrating an experienced player like Mats Hummels, who had been sidelined under Juric.

Additionally, the Testaccio-born coach has restored confidence in inconsistent players like Paulo Dybala, who was instrumental with a brace in the return leg against Porto.

Meanwhile, Athletic Club, averaging 1.88 goals per game in the Europa League, will face a sturdy and disciplined defense, which could pose challenges similar to their recent away loss to Atletico Madrid.

Given this scenario, the Basques might opt for a more cautious approach, allowing Roma to control possession while preparing to go all-in during the return leg at San Mamés, which will also host the Europa League final.

With a physical and balanced match expected—likely to be decided by a moment of brilliance or a set-piece—BetMines’ algorithm predicts that Under 2.5 Goals is the most likely outcome for this match.

• The BetMines prediction for the Roma vs Athletic Club match predicts Under 2.5 goals at 57%.
• The BetMines prediction for the Roma vs Athletic Club match predicts Over 2.5 goals at 43%.

Probable Lineups Roma vs Athletic Club

Roma (3-4-2-1): Svilar; Mancini, Hummels, Ndicka; Saelemaekers, Cristante, Koné, Angeliño; Dybala, Pellegrini; Dovbyk. Coach: Ranieri

Athletic Club (4-2-3-1): Unai Simón; Gorosabel, Vivian, Yeray, Yuri; Galarreta, Jauregizar; Iñaki Williams, Unai Gómez, Nico Williams; Berenguer. Coach: Valverde