Just over a month after the all-English final won by Tottenham Hotspur against Manchester United, the 2025/26 UEFA Europa League officially kicks off with the first qualifying round. In Ljubljana (Slovenia), one of the favorites to advance to the group stage enters the competition: Shakhtar Donetsk, one of the most successful Ukrainian teams in recent years. The Miners, as Shakhtar players are nicknamed, face Ilves, representatives of Finnish football. Last season, the Ukrainians failed to defend their league title won in 2024, finishing in third place—still enough to earn them a place in the Europa League qualifiers. For the Donbas-based club, forced to play away from their home stadium since February 2022, this is considered a step down, as they participated in the group stage of the new UEFA Champions League last season, exiting the competition with seven points in eight matches. Although their European campaign didn't yield great results, the experience gained in the continent's top competition could prove useful during their Europa League qualification journey. Shakhtar previously won the tournament in the 2008/09 season (when it was still called the UEFA Cup) and reached the semi-finals in 2020. Ilves, in contrast to the Ukrainians, are in the middle of their domestic season. They return to European competition for the first time in four years, after being eliminated in a penalty shootout by Shamrock Rovers in the preliminary round of the 2020/21 edition. Given the clear disparity in European experience, this tie may seem one-sided, but Shakhtar cannot afford to underestimate a Finnish side in much better physical condition due to ongoing competitive match rhythm.

Shakhtar Donetsk Recent Form and Key Stats

Shakhtar Donetsk haven’t played a competitive match since May 24, when they drew 1-1 with Rukh Lviv on the final matchday of the Ukrainian Premier League, won by Dynamo Kyiv. Despite finishing third, Arda Turan’s men ended the season strongly, going unbeaten in their last seven matches across all competitions.

One of the season highlights was undoubtedly their Ukrainian Cup final win over Dynamo Kyiv, secured in a penalty shootout after a 1-1 draw in regular time. In the league, the Miners collected 62 points from 18 wins, 8 draws, and only 4 losses, averaging 2.3 goals per game and conceding slightly less than one per match.

Ilves Recent Form and Key Stats

Ilves played their 15th Veikkausliiga match on Saturday, July 5, earning a draw against SJK (with Jardell Kanga scoring from the penalty spot), which allowed them to maintain third place in the standings. Joonas Rantanen’s side are now unbeaten in three straight matches, including back-to-back wins against Haka and KTP.

So far in the Finnish league, Ilves have collected 29 points from 15 matches, with a record of 9 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats. They boast the league’s best attack with 33 goals scored (2.2 per match) and one of the strongest defenses, conceding just 17 goals. On the road, their form has been impressive: unbeaten in their last four away matches, with three wins and a draw, and three clean sheets in that span.

Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ilves Prediction and Tactical Overview

The Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ilves prediction from BetMines sees the Ukrainian side as the clear favorite. This is largely due to their superior European pedigree and the overall quality of their squad, particularly in midfield and attack, where—as tradition dictates—they feature numerous technically gifted Brazilian players.

Ilves have shown solid defensive organization, even away from home, but it's hard to imagine them keeping a clean sheet in this Slovenian clash, as Shakhtar have been unable to play at the Donbas Arena for several years.

When it comes to goals, the expectation is that Shakhtar will not only win, but do so by a comfortable margin, securing a strong advantage ahead of next week’s return leg.

This task seems well within reach, especially considering Shakhtar were the highest-scoring home side in last season’s Ukrainian league, averaging 2.73 goals per match at home.

• Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ilves BetMines Prediction: Shakhtar Donetsk to win (1) – 44%
  
  
• Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ilves BetMines Prediction: Over 2.5 goals – 54%

Predicted Lineups Shakhtar Donetsk vs Ilves

SHAKHTAR DONETSK (4-1-4-1): Riznyk; Vinicius Tobias,  Bondar, Matviienko, Pedro Henrique; Marlon Gomes; Alisson, Bondarenko, Sudakov, Kevin; Eguinaldo. Coach: Arda Turan

ILVES (3-4-3): Virtanen; Maenpaa, Miettunen, Rale; Wallius, Veteli, Popovitch, Jukkola; Soderback, Akinyemi, Ala-Myllymaki. Coach: Joonas Rantanen