Spain v Italy: Analysis and prediction for the UEFA Nations League semi-final

On June 15, 2023, at 20:45 CET, Spain and Italy will face each other in an eagerly anticipated UEFA Nations League match at De Grolsch Veste stadium in Enschede. The two teams last met in the semifinals of the 2020-2021 Nations League, with Spain prevailing 2-1 over Italy.

In their last five encounters, Spain has secured three victories and suffered two defeats, scoring an average of 1.4 goals per game and conceding 0.8 goals. In the current season of the UEFA Nations League, they have obtained three wins, one loss, and two draws. They have scored an average of 1.33 goals per game and conceded 0.83 goals. Spain has scored at least one goal in their last ten UEFA Nations League matches and in 22 of their last 24 overall matches. Furthermore, the last five Spain matches have seen fewer than 3.5 goals.

On the other hand, Italy defeated Malta 2-0 in their last encounter. In their last five matches, the Azzurri have achieved three wins, two losses, and no draws, scoring an average of 1.6 goals per game and conceding 1.4 goals. In this season of the UEFA Nations League, they have obtained three wins, one loss, and two draws, scoring an average of 1.33 goals per game and conceding 1.17 goals. Italy has scored at least one goal in ten of their last eleven UEFA Nations League matches and in seven of their last eight overall matches. However, in 11 of their last 13 away matches, Italy has not conceded any goals, keeping a clean sheet.

In their last ten encounters in all competitions, both Spain and Italy have witnessed fewer than 2.5 goals on seven occasions. Additionally, in their last three head-to-head matches, Spain has emerged victorious twice, Italy has not secured a win, and there has been one draw. Spain has scored an average of 2.0 goals per game, while Italy has scored an average of 0.7 goals per game.

Probable line-ups:

ITALY: Donnarumma in goal; Di Lorenzo, Acerbi, Bastoni, and Spinazzola in defense; Barella, Jorginho, Verratti in midfield, and Chiesa, Retegui, Gnonto in attack.

SPAIN: Kepa in goal; Carvajal, Nacho, Laporte, and Baldé in defense; Fabian Ruiz, Rodri, Merino in midfield, and Dani Olmo, Morata, and Gavi in attack.

Italy Squad
Goalkeepers: Gianluigi Donnarumma (Paris), Alex Meret (Napoli), Guglielmo Vicario (Empoli)

Defenders: Francesco Acerbi (Inter), Alessandro Bastoni (Inter), Leonardo Bonucci (Juventus), Giovanni Di Lorenzo (Napoli), Federico Dimarco (Inter), Matteo Darmian (Inter), Leonardo Spinazzola (Roma), Rafael Tolói (Atalanta)

Midfielders: Nicolò Barella (Inter), Bryan Cristante (Roma), Davide Frattesi (Sassuolo), Jorginho (Arsenal), Lorenzo Pellegrini (Roma), Marco Verratti (Paris), Nicolò Zaniolo (Galatasaray)

Forwards: Federico Chiesa (Juventus), Wilfried Gnonto (Leeds), Ciro Immobile (Lazio), Giacomo Raspadori (Napoli), Mateo Retegui (Tigre)

Spain Squad
Goalkeepers: Kepa Arrizabalaga (Chelsea), David Raya (Brentford), Unai Simón (Athletic Club)

Defenders: Jordi Alba (Barcelona), Juan Bernat (Paris), Dani Carvajal (Real Madrid), Aymeric Laporte (Man City), Robin Le Normand (Real Sociedad), Nacho (Real Madrid)

Midfielders: Sergio Canales (Betis), Gavi (Barcelona), Mikel Merino (Real Sociedad), Rodri (Man City), Fabián Ruiz (Paris), Martín Zubimendi (Real Sociedad)

Forwards: Marco Asensio (Real Madrid), Ansu Fati (Barcelona), Joselu (Espanyol), Álvaro Morata (Atlético), Jesús Navas (Sevilla), Dani Olmo (Leipzig), Yeremy Pino (Villarreal), Rodrigo (Leeds)

Considering these statistics, the match is expected to be balanced and filled with expectations. Italy, relying on their strong defensive performances, will seek to defy the odds that have them as underdogs. Spain, despite suffering a defeat in their last match, can count on a favorable goal average in head-to-head encounters.

BetMines' prediction for this match is Under 2.5 Goals. The result after 90 minutes could be a draw.