Only ninety minutes separate Pafos from their dream: the champions of Cyprus, on Tuesday, August 26, have two results out of three available against Red Star Belgrade to secure their first-ever qualification to the UEFA Champions League group stage. At the Alphamega Stadium in Limassol, Carcedo’s men host the Serbian champions one week after defeating them 1-2 at the Rajko Mitić Stadium in Belgrade, also known by its iconic name Marakana. A victory that, in addition to being a crucial advantage ahead of the second leg, has made Pafos one of the most surprising teams of this year’s European qualification campaign. Before overcoming Red Star away, the Cypriots had already impressed observers by eliminating two more experienced international sides: Maccabi Tel Aviv and, above all, the Ukrainian champions Dynamo Kyiv. While their European run is surprising, the club’s management has clear ambitions, aiming to establish themselves at the top level of football, as demonstrated by the signing of experienced Brazilian defender David Luiz. Red Star, on the other hand, will try to spoil the party by overturning the first-leg defeat, needing to win in Cyprus by at least two goals to avoid extra time and penalties. The Serbian side, coached by the experienced Vladan Milojevic, have taken part in the last two Champions League group stages and proved in the earlier qualification rounds that they can win away from home, beating both Lech Poznań and Lincoln. We can therefore expect a high-intensity battle between two sides chasing the same dream: one, an ambitious club eager for its first major European adventure; the other, a historic powerhouse unwilling to step aside for emerging Cypriot football.

Pafos' recent form and key stats

Ahead of their domestic league debut scheduled for August 31, Pafos have played five Champions League qualification matches so far, collecting four wins and one draw. The Cypriots knocked out Maccabi Tel Aviv and Dynamo Kyiv, scoring an average of 1.4 goals per game and conceding just 0.4, keeping a clean sheet on three occasions.

Counting the final stretch of last season, the Cypriot champions are unbeaten in 11 games across all competitions, with eight wins and three draws. At home, they have won five of their last six matches, drawing the remaining one. Ahead of the clash with Red Star, David Luiz remains doubtful due to injury.

Red Star Belgrade's recent form and key stats

It has been a busy start to the season for Red Star Belgrade who, alongside UCL qualification, have already played three Serbian league matches. The first-leg defeat against Pafos is their only slip-up in the first nine official games of the season (seven wins and one draw), but it could have a major impact on their campaign.

In their last five games, Milojevic’s men recorded three wins, one draw, and one loss, with an average of 2 goals scored and 1 conceded per match. Red Star are unbeaten in their last six away games, with four wins (two of them against Lech Poznań and Lincoln in the Champions League qualifiers) and two draws. Key players to watch include Katai and Duarte, who have already scored 7 and 6 goals respectively.

Pafos vs Red Star Belgrade prediction and tactical overview

Despite losing, Red Star dominated the first leg, creating far more chances but failing to convert due to poor finishing. In contrast, Pafos relied almost exclusively on counterattacks, catching the Serbian defense off guard for the opening goal after just one minute and doubling their lead from the penalty spot.

Red Star, forced to overturn the deficit, will approach the return leg with the same attacking mindset, pressing high and keeping Pafos’ defense under pressure, while being more cautious against Cypriot counterattacks. Given this scenario, goals on both sides are highly likely, just as in six of the last seven matches played by Milojevic’s team.

• Pafos vs Red Star Belgrade prediction from BetMines suggests both teams to score with a 57% probability
  
  
• Pafos vs Red Star Belgrade prediction from BetMines suggests at least one team will fail to score with a 43% probability

Probable lineups Pafos vs Red Star Belgrade

PAFOS (4-2-3-1): Michail; Bruno, Luckassen, Goldar, Pileas; Pepe, Sunjic; Correia, Dragomir, Tankovic; Anderson. Coach: J. C. Carcedo

RED STAR BELGRADE (4-2-3-1): Matheus; Seol, Veljkovic, Rodrigao, Tiknizyan; Elsnik, Krunic; Milson, Duarte, Ivanic; Ndiaye. Coach: V. Milojevic